Monday, November 03, 2008

Bye, bye, Bradley effect


If John McCain has done nothing else this campaign season, he may have well and truly banished the Bradley effect from our politics and lexicon.

The Bradley effect pertains to (African American) Los Angeles Mayor, Tom Bradley's defeat in 1982 when he ran for Governor of California. Bradley was considered well ahead of his Republican challenger, George Deukmejian. But once the polls closed he had lost by a slim margin. Pollsters theorized that, when interviewing likely voters, they were lied to by people who didn't want to appear racist, but who could not bring themselves to vote for a black man.

So what has McCain done to end the Bradley effect? Simple. By providing the racists reasons to not vote for Obama, other than that he is black (Socialist, Terrorist, Muslim, etc) he has give visibility to would have been a hidden, racist-caused undercount. The racists will still be voting against Obama because of his race, but the Obama campaign knows better than Bradley's people did, who is voting against them, and how many there are.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Denis:
I hope you're right!

Because everthing on Election Day shouldn't be serious:

http://punditry.org/blog1/2008/11/election_day_special_the_big_l.html

Dean