McCain gets a good campaign line

I think that Barack Obama will win next Tuesday. But, if he doesn't it will be, in no small part, due to the campaign argument that John McCain trotted out last week.

McCain is arguing that Americans should vote for him to prevent the Democratic party from getting their hands on the Congress and the White House.

I suspect that, had John McCain started with this argument a month ago, I might be predicting the likelihood of a McCain victory right now. I don't know if the 40 watt bulbs that have run the McCain campaign hit on this themselves or if they had help, but it is a fiendishly clever argument. I just hope it is too late.

The argument accomplishes one big obvious thing, and a few not so obvious things. Obviously, it appeals to a lot of independents who are afraid of Democrats "gone wild" in Washington and lukewarm about Obama -- even if they are cold to McCain and Palin. We are a center-right country and a lot of "Reagan Democrats" might be willing to shift towards McCain if they were sufficiently concerned about a left-ish version of the the first term and a half of George W. Bush; which brings us to one of the less obvious benefits of the argument.

The Democrats can't answer it.

Any response Democrats make to the argument reinforces its merit. What can they say; look how well it turned out when the Republicans had both houses and the White house? That just reinforces McCain's point; which leads me to my last point.

It allows McCain to run against his own party; which appeals to independents and Reagan Democrats.

By talking about the perils of one party dominance, he implicitly criticizes the Republicans for their behavior from 2001 to 2007 when they pretty well dominated the Congress and White House (there was an 18 month period when the Senate was Democratic by one vote). John McCain gets to run away from Bush, tout his Maverick credentials, and dare the Democrats to say anything.

I am really glad it took him this long to figure it out.

Great Blog

Check out Helen Philpot's blog here: http://margaretandhelen.wordpress.com/.

Helen Philpot is an 82 year old woman who acknowledges a sailor's mouth, and I think has a razor wit.

John McCain is a good and honorable man...

... which came through today in Minnesota. The tone of his audience towards Barack Obama was past bitter and hateful. It bordered on scary, and this was one of the milder crowds in recent days. John McCain apparently had enough of the hate that his audiences were spewing and called on them to show some respect. He was booed. By his own supporters.

So, I give McCain credit for trying to call off the crazies. But he is responsible to no small extent for sparking the madness in the first place. McCain did authorize the "Obama hangs out with terrorists" line that Sarah Palin has been using. He did promise a speaker at one of his townhalls that he would step up the attacks on Obama's character.

Someone once wrote about Al Gore that he really didn't like the slash and burn campaigning he found himself doing in 2000. As a result he didn't have a good sense of when he went too far. Sort of like a kid who never eats spinach, he doesn't know when he has a mouthful of rancid leaf because it is never "supposed" to taste good anyway. I think John McCain shares the same attribute. Because he doesn't like or approve of the character assassination his campaign has indulged in, he doesn't know when they have gone too far. Until yesterday when someone yelled "kill him!" when Obama's name was mentioned, and McCain's face registered shock.

I think there is another "thing" in play. John McCain has likely never seen race hatred in full flower. Few white Americans have actually. Make no mistake, many of the people who call Obama an Arab, or a Terrorist, or a Muslim, or a Socialist really are calling him a N*****. They are just too "polite" to do so in front of a TV camera. I believe that John McCain, when he decided to use the Karl Rove/Swifties playbook, didn't realize how race hatred would combine with those already vicious tactics to form a truly explosive mixture of hatred and violence.

John McCain now realizes what he and his running mate have unleashed. You could see it in his face today and yesterday. I hope he can put this evil genie back in the bottle. If not I hope the Secret Service is working overtime.

What my dogs can teach Henry Paulson

I was just watching Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson on MSNBC. His news conference reinforced a suspicion I began courting a couple of days ago. Then, he went before the press to explain how additional actions that the government was taking would ease the credit crunch and get money moving again. The Dow took a nosedive. Today (maybe it was yesterday, it is hard to keep these things straight anymore) Bush told the media that the economy was going through a rough patch but that his administration were getting things under control. The Dow took another nosedive.

My wife, who trains dogs, is always after me not to coddle our dogs when they are spooked by something. When I reassure them that everything is okay, they conclude that -- if I am worried enough to reassure them -- they must really have something to worry about.

Investors can't be less rational than dogs can they?

Investing is ultimately an exercise in confidence. When our leaders keep telling us that everything will work out -- when these leaders, particularly, tell us that -- then we get spooked. And when they try to explain things while doing their best Alan Greenspan imitation it gets really scary.

So here is a modest suggestion for Mssrs Paulson and Bush: Shut. Up.