Data Matters, Statistics Matter, Testing Matters

There's been a lot of talk about China's government and the Communist Party heirarchy covering up COVID-19 case numbers. I don't doubt there have been coverups but I think it's more complicated than the Central Committee orders a cover-up and, presto, it happens. 

Based on some years spent as an analyst looking at China, I believe that cover-ups, such as alleged or presumed with COVID-19 numbers, happen from the bottom up rather than top down. The evidence of this happening in Hubei province is compelling. 

A local official will get reports of a disease spreading and supress the information because it makes him look bad or puts his boss in a bad light. Perhaps the official's cousin owns the local bird market and will take a financial hit if the market is closed. Once the cover-up begins, it seeps upward because it's in no one's interest to expose it (and that they can't control corrupt underlings). When the cover-up is exposed to the national leadership, the usual result is more foot-dragging. In the case of COVID-19, it appears Beijing saw the impending disaster and decided red faces were preferable to what they knew was coming anyway and they started taking public measures to control the catastrophe. 

The official data coming from China is suspect. Recent press reports about seriously underreported deaths in Wuhan are highly credible, for example.

The point is that when cover-ups begin in such a disorganized and self-interested fashion, they are much harder to untangle and correct; not just for western health officials, journalist and intelligence agencies, but for the national leadership in Beijing. For the west, we are left with flaky numbers and models to go by. Beijing is left with blunt force measures to contain a monster of unknown size. 

Data matters, reliable statistics matter, testing matters.