Monday, March 02, 2020

What's Next for Mayor Pete?

So, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has ended his candidacy. His was a stirring and  -- initially -- implausible pursuit; often and fairly compared to Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. So, what's next for Mayor Pete. His popularity and loyal base of support, along with a graceful and very well-timed exit, makes him a leading candidate for the VP slot.  But, I would not bet on it. 

While Pete would make a great VP, I think, in today's Democratic party climate, he won't wind up as a candidate. The chief thing that plagued Pete as a presidential candidate makes him a risky choice as a VP candidate; his nearly absent support among African Americans. 

Pete would be an otherwise obvious running mate for Elizabeth Warren. They are both data-driven policy wonks, which would be a refreshing change from the  "gut" driven circus we're currently witnessing. Pete would be an attractive understudy to Warren and would represent passing the torch to the new generation of Democrats. But...  Warren's support among African Americans is soft, and adding Pete to her ticket will further aggravate that weakness. 

Joe Biden has dangled the prospect of a woman and/or person of color as VP enough that not choosing one will disappoint a lot of his supporters. 

I don't see Bernie putting Pete on the ticket if he gets nominated. In spite of the glowing thesis that Pete wrote about Bernie's early political career, the campaign has revealed the chasm in their thinking and political styles. Besides, I don't think Bernie wants to share the ticket with a marquee candidate.

Pete would be a good add to an Amy Klobuchar candidacy, but -- as much as I like her -- she is likely to be out of the race by next Wednesday. And the heated exchanges between her and Pete during the debates don't augur well for a shared ticket. 

The candidate who really might gain from putting Pete on the ticket is Mike Bloomberg.   In many ways Pete resembles a much younger Bloomberg, before going out on his own, before the first million. Pete's description of being dissatisfied with life as a McKinsey consultant smacks of Bloomberg's restiveness as a Wall Street drone. And there is the shared experience of running troubled cities (albeit diffent in scale). An effective political partnership between the two would alleviate worries about Bloomberg's age. But... if Pete has problems with African American voters, Bloomberg's record is radioactive. And, following his two debate performances, Bloomberg's candidacy looks like it has two flat tires and is leaking gas.

So, what is next for Pete? My guess is an ambassadorship, possibly a cabinet job, or a Senate campaign. I'd love to see him as the next chairperson of the DNC, where he could fix much of Tom Perez's damage and start building the next-gen Democratic party.

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