- Barack Obama now has the "mandate election" he wants. Romney wanted the election to be a referendum on Obama. The problem with that tactic is that Obama turned the tables and made the election a referendum on Romney. Romney was losing that race. Romney talked about the race as a choice for America, "its about the economy;" but by making it about Obama's fitness to occupy the office, he personalized the race and opened his flank to an attack he was ill-equipped to counter. So now it really is about a choice for America. This is where Obama wanted to be. If Ryan takes the lead in explaining his (and now Romney's) budget plans, he will have to meet Obama on ground that the President is very comfortable on. Moreover, Ryan will have to persuade voters of the merits of policies that they haven't shown much approval for, yet. If Ryan adopts the traditional posture of attack dog, the Democrats will be able to define Ryan's economic plans and ideas in whatever manner they choose.
- This is high-risk for Romney -- and potentially high-payoff; high-risk for reasons stated above, and a few that will follow, and high-payoff if Ryan is able to energize younger, idealistic voters for whom, Ryan's libertarian views resonate. Ryan has made much in the past (and much less recently) of the influence Ayn Rand has had on him. Rand retains a high degree of popularity among younger voters who don't necessarily buy 100% into Rand's objectivist philosophy, but buy enough that they would -- ideally -- like to see some of the her ideas enacted. A lot of these voters live in states like Colorado (a crucial swing state) and Oregon and Washington, states that are thought solid for Obama; if Ryan can soften those states up, then Obama will have to spend resources that can be better spent in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, etc.
- Romney risks being upstaged by Ryan. If Ryan emerges as the "ideas" guy on the team, then what role does Romney have? Does he take on the attack dog job? It is a cliche that people don't vote for a ticket because of the VP choice. The VP may make them more comfortable about voting for the presidential candidate, but if they really don't like number one, they won't vote for number two. Right now, Romney is deeply disliked. If he allows Ryan to take the high -- ideas -- road and assigns himself the low road, his chances will crater.
- Ryan is probably a better campaigner than many critics think. He is a likable guy. He has a lot of energy and exudes the kind of confidence that goes with being an introverted person who has thought long and hard about something, mastered it and, in doing so, is comfortable in his own skin. This is an appealing trait to many Americans. It sort of reminds us of Jimmy Stewart in Mr Smith Goes to Washington. Guess who else has this trait? Barack Obama.
- Romney (and the Republicans) are playing long-ball. The Republicans are better at long-ball than the Democrats. Their public rhetoric has it that this is Romney's election to lose. That has never been true. In addition to the incredible powers that incumbency gives any President, Obama has always been a tough proposition for any Republican to beat. Why? because for all purposes and intents, Obama is governing as a Republican. His signature measure, Obamacare, is Republican in its DNA. His approach to financial reform would have fit nicely in just about every Republican administration from Ike to Bush 41. Running against Obama's record is like running against your parents'. In Romney's case that is literally true. So, this race has never been the Republicans to lose. They are likely to lose it. So they have to plan for 2016. What better way to do so than to launch their 2016 candidate now (yes, the Republicans are that hierarchical) . And, if lightning strikes and they win this year, then Ryan will be in position as the 2020 candidate.
Monday, August 13, 2012
So, Ryan....
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Health Care Reform and Flu (and the Zombie Apocalypse)
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Another modest suggestion
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
What is all this about teleprompters??
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Remembering Flight 93, Remembering Their Gift
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
A "must-read" column on today's Republican Party and toxic politics
Goodbye to All That: Reflections of a GOP Operative Who Left the Cult | Truthout
This column is a bit long, but worth the reading. Should be required reading for every Democrat in the House and Senate, and for the one in the White House.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Good essay; the problem *is* us
Five Governance Problems That Contributed to the U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade
Good essay from Brookings. Bottom line for me is that voters don't participate in the electoral process until the general election, if then. The general election is not the time to bemoan the quality of candidates or the process that gave them to you.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Some modest suggestions
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Saturday Morning Coming Down
So. The debt limit crisis rolls on. The House voted for a poison pill, which the Senate rejected. The President bemoaned the lack of bi-partisanship. The public is angrier.
I would like to take note of something that is kind of important to remember. Only one party is really culpable here. One party has made it a key principle that big business and the wealthiest Americans should not lose their tax breaks (tax breaks that are not enjoyed by all Americans) and has resolved to bring down the economy instead. The other party is trying to govern.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Paying taxes (and blogging) is hard!
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
She's Back (Christine, the Teenage Witch, that is)
She has set up ChristinePAC, to help her fight "establishment" Repubs, and George Soros too. Maybe also to help her pay her rent?
Monday, February 07, 2011
She who must not be named
So. Sarah Pain has trade-marked herself. While that might make sense for Bristol Palin, it is un-democratic and possibly (hopefully) self-defeating for Sarah Palin.
It is un-democratic because she will try to restrict who, when, and how people talk and write about her. Imagine Tina Fey getting sued for damaging the Palin "brand."
It is self-defeating because, well, why would any pol want to generate questions about when it is appropriate to use her name?
Here is a modest suggestion: stop using her name, period. If she wants to restrict how her "trade mark" is used in a free society that she aspires to lead, let's go her one better and stop using the name all together.
SWMNBN (She Who Must Not Be Named) is a good handle. We could even pronounce it "swim nubbin." That has a folksy feel to it.